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Economic Postscript to Nothing Fails Like Success

It's May 1st, two months since this piece was written.  Rather than mince words, I will be as declarative as possible.

•    First, the economy as presently constructed will never recover.

•    Second, if there is any economic growth soon, it will be short, swift, and weak.

•    Third, readers should not have money in savings and loans. They are a joke. The money they say they have does not exist. They will disappear before the end of the the decade.

•    Fourth, if you have cash, hold it. Do not buy stocks, bonds, real estate, or anything else other than what you need to operate your life, livelihood, or business.

•    Fifth, extra cash should be put in government securities (like Capital Preservation Fund, 755 Page Mill Road, Palo Alto, CA 94306; see Summer '81 CQ) or, for the time being, a sohd, large bank.

•    Sixth, avoid money-market funds. They are the monetary siren of the Eighties.

•    Seventh, if you have stocks, I would sell them and step out of the market. If you are holding onto stocks because you think the market is already at or near its low, you will be surprised by how low the market can go.

•    Eighth, interest rates are at their low. They will not go lower and will soar to new highs later this year and early next.

•    Ninth, be curmudgeonly about your money.  Either save it or invest it in what has meaning to you. Don't let others invest it for you. The economic events of the next twelve months I think will surprise everyone. I do not mean to irhply that markets will crash or financial institutions will fail. My suggested course of action is merely a neutral action. Until the government and the markets decide what to do with the growing $5.2 trillion debt that is racheting up interest rates and driving America to insolvency, the smartest course of action is no action. Money should be put aside while we watch whether the result will be inflation or deflation.